trict post, that a reduction of 46 per cent on the postage rate was followed by an increase of letters of only 67 per cent, instead of 69, according to the proposition; and it is very certain that a very small reduction in the rates would be followed by no increase whatever in the number of letters. I do not presume to determine the precise extent of reduction on the rates at which the increase of letters would commence; but think it very probable that a change of the present rates of 6, and 124 cents, to 5 and 10 cents, being a reduction of 163 per cent in the former case, and 20 per cent in the latter, would not sensibly affect the present number of letters, whilst it would considerably lessen the present gross revenue. The probability is, that after that extent of reduction on the rates which first begins to operate as a cause of increase in the letters, a greater reduction on the rates would be followed by an increase of letters in a much greater ratio than the ratio of increase on the reduction of rates; and that, after reaching a certain extent of reduction on the rates, the ratio of increase of letters would be very little affected by a still greater reduction on the rates. And, for this latter reason, it is no objection to our proposition to say, that according it a reduction of 100 per cent on the ratio, would produce an increase of letters of only 150 per cent. By the penny system, in England, I have shown from official sources, which cannot be contradicted, that the average increase of letters for the first year after the reduction, was not ten times, or seven times, or even four times their former number, as is commonly stated in our newspapers-but only 107 per cent of that number. We may reasonably suppose, that those who in England are deterred from writing a letter by the postage of one penny, would be also deterred by the price of paper and ink, were the postages abolished altogether; and that (newspapers not being considered) the main effect of this hypothesis would be, that "no cure, no pay" handbills, and such like matter, which does not now pass through the mails at all, would be thrust in their faces under the appearance of friendly correspondence.

I shall now test the proposition relative to the increase of letters, by applying it to the hypothesis of the postmaster general, that a uniform rate of 10 cents on all letters carried over 30 miles, would be followed by a probable increase of 20 per cent on this class of letters. On the 10-cent letters there would certainly be no increase; nor can we calculate on an increase of either the 6-cent or the 12-cent letters, the reduction not being over 20 per cent; on the 184-cent letters, the reduction being 463 per cent, the increase would be 67 per cent, (as in London district post,) while on the 25-cent letters, the reduction being 60 per cent, there would be an increase of 90 per cent, according to my proposition. This increase would amount to 5,737,251 letters, which, on the present number of 25,274,090, is about 22,7 per cent; a per centage only 2 more than the low estimate of the postmaster general-being a difference so small, that I cannot but conclude that the estimated increase of letters in conse. quence of the adoption of my proposed rates, must certainly meet the approbation of the present postmaster general.

Let us now estimate the probable result of the adoption of the uniform rate of 5 cents. In this case, we can calculate upon no increase of the 6cent letters; and on the 25-cent letters, the reduction on the rates being 80 per cent, there will be a probable increase of 120 per cent, according to my proposition.

This estimate shows a deficiency in the gross revenue of ($3,953,319 34-$2,762,618 85)=$1,190,700 49, being a deficiency greater than that which would be produced from the adoption of my proposed tariff by $214,167 23. And, as it appears to me that this deficit cannot be sustained by the department without an appropriation from the treasury, it is unnecessary to consider farther the effects of this uniform rate. I may observe, however, that it has not the recommendation of reducing the 6-cent letters to a rate sufficiently low as to remove the temptation to evade the postage laws in the thickly settled portions of our country; whilst my proposed rate of 3 cents, besides being sufficient and just, would actually increase the revenue from this class of letters, viz:-($368,649 03-8351,094 30-$17,554 73.)

I shall now consider the probable effects of the adoption of the bill proposed in the senate by the Hon. Mr. Merrick, testing it by the same plan of calculation.

By this bill, single letters carried under 100 miles are to be charged 5 cents, and all over that distance, 10 cents. In this case, as in the last, there would be no probable increase of the 6-cent letters. On the 10cent letters there would be 75 per eent of increase. On a portion of the 12-cent letters, the reduction on the rate being 60 per cent, the increase would be 90 per cent; but on the remaining portion, there would be no probable increase, the reduction on their rate being only 20 per cent. On the 184-cent letters, the increase would be 67 per cent, the reduction on their rate being only 463 per cent. And on the 25-cent letters, the reduction of rate being 60 per cent, the increase will be 90 per cent.

In the report transmitted to the senate, by the postmaster general, dated January 5th, 1843, it is estimated that when the number of letters, under 30 miles, was 5,328,600, the number of letters carried over 30 to 100 miles, 9,515,390; we may therefore conclude, that when the number of letters carried under 30 miles is (as in 1842) 7,021,886, the number of letters carried over 30 to 100 miles is 12,539,125. Now, the number of letters carried over 30 to 80 miles being 10,532,815, it appears that the letters carried over 80 to 100 miles is 2,006,310; and the number of letters carried over 80 to 150 miles being 7,021,887, that the number of letters carried over 100 to 150 miles is 5,015,577.

The gross revenue under this bill, will, therefore, stand thus:

For convenient reference, I subjoin a table of these results, as far as they exhibit the gross revenue that will be obtained from chargeable letters, delivered at the present and the different proposed rates; and, also, the deficit for the first year under the reduced rates.

MILES. PRESENT TARIFF. P. M. G.'s T'RIFF. MERRICK'S TFF. UNIFORM RATE. PROPOSED TR'FF. Not over Rates.

Revenue. Rates. Revenue. Rates. Revenue. Rates. Revenue. Rates. Revenue.

In the above table, the revenue under the tariff proposed by the postmaster general, is estimated on the basis of my proposition on the increase of letters. It will be perceived that the total revenue thus exceeds his own estimate by $68,244.

I proceed with my argument on the supposition that the lowest tariff which will be sufficient to cover the expenditures, is that which Congress should adopt.

My proposed tariff has this two-fold advantage over all the others: 1st, it will produce a greater revenue on the first class of letters; and, 2d, it will remove all objections to the adoption of the prepayment system; for, under it, a double charge on letters not prepaid will in no case exceed the present rate.

It is not liable to the objection that may be urged against the tariffs proposed by the postmaster general and Senator Merrick-that the rates are not sufficiently low as to destroy the influence of the expresses-an objection of so great weight, as to make doubtful the estimated increase in the number of letters under their tariffs.

My proposed rates are, moreover, low enough to satisfy the just demands of the public, and render the penal laws on postage no longer oppressive and odious; and, for this reason, (besides the two-fold advantage already mentioned,) I prefer them to the proposed uniform rate of 5 cents. Better to adopt a tariff which will probably bear a further reduction in future years, than one which is in any degree likely to become a burden on the public treasury, or else need to be altered to higher rates.

From the documents accompanying the report of the postmaster general, dated December 3d, 1842, I learn that of the 52,681,252 letters which passed through the London general post for the year ending February 27th, 1841, (the first complete year under the new system,) 48,130,159 were prepaid, or about 91 per cent of the whole number, whilst formerly there was only 14 per cent; being a difference of 77 per cent in favor of the new system. There is no reason why the prepayment system should not be followed by the same effects here. Now, the postmaster general, in his report, dated January 18th, 1844, says, "the number of dead letters returned to the general post-office, may be stated at not less than 1,200,000."

On this number, 77 per cent will be $924,000, which, at the average of 5 cents each, will produce an additional revenue of $46,200.

To secure the full benefit of the prepayment system, labels or receipts of postage should be introduced. They will, as Sir Rowland Hill predicted, in the case of England, "simplify and accelerate the posting of letters, both to the public and the post-office; will secure prepayment, by relieving messengers from the temptation to purloin the postage; will register accurately the receipts of the postage revenue, and afford, for the first time, an effectual check upon the receivers; will economise the trouble of paying postage, to suit every one's taste and convenience; and, lastly, will effect a voluntary forestalment of the revenue."

The postmaster general proposes that the lowest rate of letter postage (which, according to the reduction here suggested, would be 3 cents) should be imposed on drop letters.

This proposition appears to me to be reasonable; and would, in combination with the prepayment system, withdraw these letters from their present course, as far as their now increased number is the effect of the expresses. Their present annual number is estimated in the report last named, at 1,026,504. On every one of those which would hereafter pass through the regular mails, the department would receive an average of 4 cents more than it does at present; while each of those which would remain "drop letters," would contribute 2 cents additional. This would add at least $20,000 to the revenue.

Justice to the department would seem to require that an extra charge of 2 cents should be imposed on every letter which has been advertised, to defray their extra cost. From an authentic statement, already quoted, I set down the amount which would be thus added to the revenue at not less than $60,000.

To recapitulate-by these modifications of the tariff I have proposed, there would be added to the revenue

From dead letters, by the prepayment system,.
From "drop letters," by the charge of 3 cents,.
From the extra charge on advertised letters,.

Making a total addition to the revenue,.

This will reduce my former estimated deficit to.

$46,200

20,000

60,000

$126,200

850,333

The estimated deficit, without these modifications, being.... $976,533

To meet the deficit the first year after the reduction, I ask for no appropriation from the treasury to the aid of the department: I ask only for the just payment to the department, from the public funds, of the expense of the $900,000 to which it has been this year subjected on account of the franking privilege-a privilege (whatever might be said of it) that was granted by Congress for the benefit, not of letter-writers only, but the entire public;—and, for every year afterwards, the actual cost of the free letters carried by the mails during the preceding fiscal year; their cost being calculated at the same rates as other letters. I take this stand, solely because I consider my estimate a very safe one, and likely to produce, rather than a deficit, a surplus of nearly $50,000. For, if we suppose the real cost of the franked matter to have been always in the same proportion to the real cost of paid matter, it will be found that the latter

has, since the organization of the department, contributed to the legitimate expenses of the government about seventeen millions of dollars; and, this being the case, we might surely stretch a point to effect such a permanent public good. Speaking of the new English system, I find it said in the report of the postmaster general, December 3d, 1842, "it is impossible to doubt that the domestic, social, moral, and commercial effects of the change have been as extensive as they are beneficial-as productive of public advantage as they have been conducive to individual happiness."

But as a call for assistance from the treasury, even on this strong ground, would be a dangerous precedent, I should be reluctant to recommend any tariff which would require it. Happily for us, it is not necessary.

I have already stated that the first year after the adoption of the prepayment system, the paid letters in the London general post were 91 per cent of the entire number; the unpaid letters, of course, being 9 per cent. Now, my estimates having been formed on the number of letters delivered -if unpaid letters be charged at double rates, it is plain that, to find the true revenue, there should be 9 per cent added to my former estimate of the revenue. This per centage will produce the additional sum of $267,910, so that, for the first year after the reduction of postage, there would be an actual surplus revenue of over $300,000.

If we suppose the number of free letters to remain the same, their proportional cost under my proposed tariff will be found to be $363,626.

The following table exhibits the gross revenue, according to the foregoing estimates, for the first three years after the adoption of the reduced rates. The column marked P, expresses the sums that would be added to the revenue by the adoption of the pre-payment system, supposing that, of all the chargeable letters delivered, there were for the first year 9 per cent not pre-paid, for the second year 6 per cent, and for the third year only 3 per cent.

3d 66

Drop letAnnual incr. (P.) Free letters. ters, &c. Total revenue. Surplus. 1st year, $2,976,786 $267,910 $900,000 $126,200 $4,270,896 $317,577 2d 66 2,976,786 $446,518 205,398 363,626 126,200 4,118,528 165,209 3,423,304 513,495 118,104 363,626 126,200 4,544,729 591,520 It will be remembered that these estimates have all been founded on the returns of the year 1842, in which year the greatest amount for letter postage was received; and that in that year the number of chargeable letters delivered at the several rates of postage, continued in the same proportion as in 1836. This I consider the only proper foundation whereon to base estimates of the effects of a tariff sufficiently reduced as to destroy the influence of the expresses; and to have been properly adopted by the postmaster general himself in his report, dated January 5, 1843; though I do not for a moment suppose but that the actual number of letters in 1842 was in a very different proportion from my estimate, for in that year the expresses had already exerted a most disturbing influence. It will be observed, also, that they rest on the supposition that the franking privilege, the expense of transportation, and the compensation to deputy postmasters, will remain the same.

In order that no objection may remain unanswered, let us now examine the late report of the postmaster general, dated January 16, 1844.

"From the returns as made for the month of October, 1843, estimating the same amount of mail matter for each month in the year, it appears