Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial LecturesClarendon Press, 1993 - 184 Seiten How do people behave in new situations in which previous experience is not useful? The recent changes in Eastern Europe, for example, are unprecedented and there is not an available model on which to base the mechanisms that will govern the economics in this region. The concept of "bounded (orlimited) rationality" is being developed to analyze behavior in such situations. In this book Thomas Sargent describes and interprets the recent work in the area, especially in statistics, econometrics, networks and artificial intelligence. He focuses on examples designed to illustrate the issuesinvolved and the kinds of questions that are being asked and answered in this research. He points to further potential positive developments of the theory as well as some of its limitations. |
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Seite 18
... forecasts , given the information that the rule uses . In Muth's vision , the forecasting scheme ( 15 ) inherits its one para- meter from the stochastic process ( 16 ) actually governing the { X } process being forecast . 16 Muth's work ...
... forecasts , given the information that the rule uses . In Muth's vision , the forecasting scheme ( 15 ) inherits its one para- meter from the stochastic process ( 16 ) actually governing the { X } process being forecast . 16 Muth's work ...
Seite 128
... forecast according to the rule ( 38 ) and when the 0's are updated according to ( 39 ) , the optimal forecast has a form EtRt = h ( Gt ) , where ( 40 ) Rt = h ( Gt ) + ut , where Et is the conditional expectation operator , h ( · ) is a ...
... forecast according to the rule ( 38 ) and when the 0's are updated according to ( 39 ) , the optimal forecast has a form EtRt = h ( Gt ) , where ( 40 ) Rt = h ( Gt ) + ut , where Et is the conditional expectation operator , h ( · ) is a ...
Seite 140
... forecast the market - clearing price for that period . The author of the forecast that came closest to the actual time t price was awarded a prize , and the winning forecast was announced to all subjects at the end of the period ...
... forecast the market - clearing price for that period . The author of the forecast that came closest to the actual time t price was awarded a prize , and the winning forecast was announced to all subjects at the end of the period ...
Inhalt
INTRODUCTION | 1 |
DATA STRUCTURES | 35 |
Estimated parameters | 45 |
Urheberrecht | |
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Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures Thomas J. Sargent Keine Leseprobe verfügbar - 1993 |
Häufige Begriffe und Wortgruppen
adaptive agents adaptive expectations approximation algorithm Arifovic assume behavior beliefs bounded rationality boundedly rational agents Bray's model classifier system coefficients compute conditional expectation convergence covariance decision rules describe determined econometricians econometrics economists economy encode environment estimate Euler equation example exchange rate Federal Reserve Figure fixed point forecast function G₁ genetic algorithm Hopfield network inflation rate initial conditions iteration Kiyotaki law of motion least squares learning linear literature Marcet and Sargent Marimon and Sunder matrix methods neural networks neuron Newton's method no-trade theorem nonlinear optimal orthogonal perceptron period Phillips curve population price level problem rate of return rational expectations dynamics rational expectations equilibrium rational expectations models recursive regime regression rest points return on currency sample saving rates Sims simulation solving stationary equilibrium stochastic approximation stochastic approximation algorithm stochastic process studied theory tions trade vector autoregression w₁
Verweise auf dieses Buch
Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox Gerd Gigerenzer,Reinhard Selten Eingeschränkte Leseprobe - 2002 |