Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry: Models for New Product and In-Market Forecasting and How to Use Them
CRC Press, 03.03.2016 - 234 Seiten
Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex ’black box’ equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.
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1 The Past and the Present
2 The Forecasting Process
3 New Product Forecasting
4 InMarket Product Forecasting
5 Specialized Topics in Pharmaceutical Forecasting
6 Thoughts for the Future
7 PharmaCo A Forecasting Case Study
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Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry: Models for New Product and In ...
Arthur G. Cook
Eingeschränkte Leseprobe - 2016
adoption curve analysis analytics approach assumptions audits biologic medicine biosimilar calculation cannibalization challenge Chapter competitor compliance and persistence consumer Cytoflux data points datasets days of therapy decision makers demand forecast demand sales discussed distributor dosing Drug Treated Patients drug treatment rate effects epidemiology European Medicines Agency european union ex-factory sales ex-trend events example Focalitine forecast algorithm forecast model founder effects future historical data intervention triangles launch line extension manufacturer market dynamics market research market share marketing intervention MedAdNews methodology methods Month Month Month net present value number of patients orphan drugs parallel importation patient-based peak share percent personal promotion activity pharmaceutical industry PharmaCo physician pill burden polypharmacy prescribing decision prescription prevalence product forecasting product share productivity multiple programs Question rare diseases resource revenue risk scenarios Schizophrenia scores and weights segmentation Sharon shown in Figure speculation spreadsheet Steadertin techniques therapy area trend uncertainty units uptake