CHAP. XI. On the Effects likely to be produced by the French Revolution on other Nations. I HAVE considered the effects which the French Revolution must have in France itself. I will now consider the effects which it will probably produce on other nations. But in doing this, it will be necessary to observe circumstances which now exist, or are likely very soon to be in existence. The American War established a Representative Government, in what are now called the United States of America. The French Revolution has established a Representative Government in France. It is probable, that we shall soon see a Representative Government in Spain; and Representative Governments in the continental provinces of Spanish America will perhaps be established, in imitation of their parent country. Cuba deserves a distinct consideration. It will either be taken possession of by the United States of America, or by England; or become an independent State: for its size and population enable it to assume this character. . When the Spanish Empire, in Europe and America, shall have assumed the form which I have mentioned, can we suppose that Portugal will remain in its present situation? Is there not every reason to expect, that Portugal and Brazil will not long remain under the same Government? If the King returns to Portugal, he will lose the Sovereignty of Brazil; and if he remains in Brazil, Portugal will shake off his government. Probably her new Government will be Representative; and we shall see a Portuguese Cortes recalled to power, as we have seen it in Spain. I shall be told, all this depends on Ferdinand's Government being overthrown; but it is manifest, that Ferdinand's Government cannot be durable. Even though it should resist the present shocks, the general wish of the people to see the Cortes recalled, and a Constitution established, must ultimately prevail. Germany already feels the effects of the French Revolution. The desire of a Representative Government is every where prevalent. The diminution of the wealth and power of the Roman Catholic Clergy in Germany must have great effect in producing changes in that country. Before the French Revolution, much sovereign power was possessed by the Catholic Clergy in Germany; I believe they are now every where deprived of Sovereignty. Their dominions are assigned to neighbouring Princes. Even Italy will be affected by the French Revolution. The principles of Liberty have been discussed, and are understood in that country. The fall of the Papal Power, which cannot long be deferred, will necessarily occasion that country to assume a new form. The human mind trembles at the contemplation of these probable events: "Through what variety of untried being, Through what new scenes and changes must we pass? The changes which I have alluded to, will not only affect the Government of Nations; it will greatly affect their intercourse with each other. The Spanish Provinces on the Western side of South America, will open a trade with India and China; they will be supplied from those countries with silk and cotton manufactures; because they can be supplied from thence at a cheaper rate than they can from Europe. Even the Black and Mulatto nations of Saint Domingo ought not to be left out of our consideration. They will probably extend themselves over the whole of that island; perhaps even to Porto Rico. Perhaps the time is not far removed, when posterity may see the inhabitants of the four great Antilles one motley race; in which, however, it is most likely that the Mulatto will gradually predominate. There is a circumstance in the changes already occasioned by the American and French Revolutions, and which will probably be found in the changes about to take place: viz. that these changes will not be the effect of conquest, but the result of insurrections of the People against their Governments; whereas, almost all the other Revolutions which we read of in history, have been the consequence of conquest. The Persian, the Macedonian, the Roman Empires, were established by conquest. The Roman Empire was destroyed by conquerors from the Northern and Eastern parts of the world. Revolutions, the result of conquest, necessarily occasion a change in the race of inhabitants. Most probably the Northern Conquerors of the Roman Empire, did not extirpate, but became blended with the inhabitants; for we every where find a language evidently derived from the Latin. I believe, in every part of France, the common people retain their patois; a corruption of the language |