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Sea. The rebellion in the Crimea, whether the new acquisitions ia and apprehensions of danger nearer Poland, or the influence gained in
home, prevented, however, some of the exertions that might otherwise have been made in the war upon the Danube.
It (till remains-to be seen, whether it was a wife policy in Russia,
that country by the court of Petersburg, be equivalent to the loss, expence, and danger of such a war. These will be found, upon examination, to be very inadequate 19 suth a price. It Poland itill con
to attempt increasing the bulk of tinned to be, what it lung was, a
that vast empire, by adding new conquests to those boundless and illcultivated regions which Ihe already possefles; and which are perhaps at present too large for the grasp of any single government. It may possibly hereafter be thought, that the immense waste os treasure and blood, which has been so lavishly squandered in this pursuit, would have been much better applied to the great purposes of population and internal improvement; and that the glace of fruitless victories, area poor recoropence for the dii"
great and powcrlu! nation, under the conduct of illultriois pri.ices, and guarded by a nobility famous for their prowess and military virtues, such an extension 01 frontier would be a matter of real momen', and carry with it great additional security. In the present instance thele circumstances are totally changed. Russia had nothing to apprehend from Poland, and much to gain by it. She has now obtained a large accession of territory in Lithuania, of the fame nature with respect to soil and climate,
orders excited by the consequent and much in the same state as to
oppressions of the people, aud the rial weakness.that must ensue, from so long and so violent an exertion.
It was evident from the nature and situation of the countries, and tne consequences of former wars
cultivation, with those wide extended, but half desart countiies, which (he hid already possessed in that quarter; and which will still require the jime and labour of ages to be peopled and cultivated. Loth the old and the new possessions pro
with the Turks, that conquests in duce the fame commodities, have
Moldavia, VYallachia, or Lessiirabia, and victories on the l'ruth or the Danube, were not likely to be attended with much' benefit to Russia. The gaining of a port upon tiie Black-bea, was indeed an object of the utmost importance; but of such a nature as to be attended almost with insuperable difficulties;
the fame wants, require the fame degrees of improvement, and are incapable of being of any use or assistance to each other.
With respect to frontier, for the neighbourhood of the peaceable, indolent, and impotent Pole, Russi.i has now extended her boundaries into contact with those of her jea
hoth from the fatal aspect which it lous, watchful, and enterprising
most bear to the Ottoman empire, rivals; and has thereby laid the
and the jealousy which it must ex- foundation (if the present system,
cite in several of the European continues) for such ejjdless alter
powers. . cation and disputes, as must keep
It still remains to be enquired, Germany and the North in a con
\A\ z tinual
"nual state of warfare and consufion. The wisest and most benevolent statesman could not have wilhed for a happier barrier than Poland, to prevent the clashing of the German and Muscovite empires; nor could the demon of discord have thrown out bitterer seeds of contention, than it is now likely to produce.
As to the obtaining or preserving of an influence in Poland, her late measures have been attended with as little advantage in that respect as in any other, Russia before, solely guided and directed the councils of that country, nor . ould she have been deprived of the great security and advantage which she derived from that unbounded influence, but by the most mistaken conduct and falsest policy. She now divides her authority with the other members of the triumvirate, who will be sufficiently careful that stie does not retain more than her share; nor will her dividend in a suture partition of the remains of that republic, be in any degree an equivalent for the advantages which she has foregone, in losing that supreme influence and direction by which she guided the whole.
Those schemes which were trumpeted throughout Europe, of totally conquering and subverting the Ottoman empire, however they might have been held out to flatter the imaginations of the people, or to answer purposes in negociations for loans, could not have been seriously adopted by any statesman. If the practicability of such an event were even admitted, it could answer no good purpose, and would probably be highly pernicious to Russia. The eternal boundaries
which Nature has placed between those empires, their distance, situation, and vast extent, the extreme difference of climate, and in the manners, customs, and religions of the inhabitants, are insuperable bars to their coalesceing; and rentier it as impossible for Petersburg to rule the Ottoman empire, as it would be for Constantinople to govern the Russian.
The war in the Mediterranean has this year been attended with little honour, and with no other advantage that what proceeded from the taking of prizes, As a war of this nature is always very prejudicial to commerce, and has in this cafe been particularly so to the French merchants, it has given much umbrage to the two great branches of the house of Bourbon. And as the death of Ali Bey, and the return of Egypt to its duty, has cut off one of the principal sources of advantage that could be expected from it, and that the passage of the Dardanelles seems no longer to be thought practicable, it may still be a matter not unworthy of consideration, how much farther it may be consistent with prudence, to irritate the resentment of those princes; and whether any advantages now to be expected from a continuance of the war in the Levant, are equivalent to the risque of a rupture with France and Spain. This fleet, however,has been lately reinforced, and it is said will be rendered formidable in the ensuing summer.
The cession of the Dutchy of Holstein to Denmark, is to be considered in no other light than as a sacrifice to the present war, arrd is therefore to be brought as a discount, on any future advantages that Russia may obtain by it. At
the the same time, nothing can be a clearer demonstration of the apprehensions which the latter had conceived, with respect to the designs of a near northern neighbour, than the great price which lhe has upon this occasion paid for the sriendlhip • osthe former.
It was one of the most favourite and darling projects with Peter the Great, to obtain, at any expence, and by any means, a German principality, with a vote in the diet of the empire. The watchful, and prudent jealousy, with which even hii nearest allies regarded this design, prevented its accomplishment. They readily joined him in stripping Sweden of its plumes, and adorned themselves with a part of them; but prudently declined the honour of his becoming a nearer neighbour. This object, of which he was disappointed in himself, he however wished to obtain for his successors, and it accordingly influenced his conduct in the marriages of his children, in consequence of which, the late unfortunate Emperor, Peter the Third, united in his own person, the dutchies of Slefwick and Holstein, with the empire of Russia.
Such is the vanity of human designs and wisdom, that this object of so much care and solicitude, though his original paternal inheritance, venerable for its antiquity, and of some consideration for its value and extent, is relinquished by the present successor without any equivalent; Delmenhorst, and the county of Oldenburgh, being in no degree to be considered as such. It must however be acknowledged, that these dutchies are of infinitely greater consequence and value to Denmark than to Russia; and that
this cession removes a bone of endless contention from between those states. i
The despotism of the Russian government, can only secure obedience, while the rods and the axes are immediately before the eyes of the people; but as soon as distance, or any other circumstance, screens them from the immediate exertion of power, all discipline, order, and submission are at an end, and those who were immediately before its most abject slaves, become at ones the most arrogant conternners of all laws and obligations. To this untoward disposition, (which, where religion does not rivet the chains, is the inseparable attendant of despotism) the Russians owe a new war, which has this year broken out in the Crimea; where the Don Cossacks, with others of their subjects, having revolted, and joined with the Tartars, and those few Turks who were left in the country, have become so formidable as nearly to master the whole, and thus have rendered abortive, all their former successes in that peninsula.
A rebellion of a more dangerous nature has lately broken out in the borders of the kingdom of Calan, owing, it is said, to the extraordinary impositions laid on for tha support of the war, and the continual draughts of men carried oss for the supply of the armies. For this purpose, notwithstanding the great improvements in knowledge and science which have taken place in Russia, it was not yet thought too late, to raise a new Demetrius from the dead. A Cossack, whose name is Pugatschess, has assumed the name and character of the late unfortunate Emperor Peter the [a] 3 , Th.rd. Third. He preiends that he made hi> escape, through an extraordinary intervention or" Providence, from the murderers who were destined for his deduction; and that the report of his death was only a fiction coined by the court, to compose the minds of the people, and reconcile them to the present unlawful government, by being cut off from all hopes of a better.
This impostor, who pretends to the greatest sanctity, assumes the garb of a patriarch, and bestews his benedictions on the people, with thr air of a new apostle. He declares that he has no views for his own interest, he being entirely weaned from the vanities of the worsd, and the remainder of his life devoted wholly to piety; and that as soon as he has placed his dear son upon the throne, he will again retire to lead the life of a hermit. Notwithlianding the grossness of this imposture, the pitiableness and marvellous circumstances of the tale, operating upon the discontent and ignorance of the people, procured him an infinite number of followers, among whom, it is said, were many of the nobility of thegovernmentof Oremburg, where the troubles began, as well as of the adjoining countries. This mat
^ . ter was regarded in so
Dec. zid, r • ," • o
> ' serious a degree in re
'773" terfburgh, that a manifesto was published against Pugatschesf, and his adherents, in which the reason of thepeople was appealed to, for their guard against such delusions, General Bibikow, and several bodies of troops, have also been sent to suppress the insurrection; but as this matter only ori
termined, the particular detail will appear in its proper place upon a future occaii in.
It is not probable that these rebellions will be attended with any extraordinary consequences; they however (hew the precarious state of power in that empire: and it is fcmarkable that they are the effects of a war, which was probably undertaken to prevent such commotions.
The campaign this year upon the Danube, though not productive of advantage, must, Trom its nature and distance, have.been more expensive to Russia than any two of the preceding, Upon the whole, in whatever light this war is considered, when separated from the glare of its victories, whether with respect to the waste of treasure, to depopulation, to the loss of Hoistein, to internal disturbances, or with regard to the removing of ancient landmarks and boundaries, and overthrowing the established svstem of the Ncrth, thereby setting a pre edent for the suture breach of all faith and alliance, and forming precarious, unnatural, and dangerous arrangements and connexions, in every point of view, it appears to have been highly ruinous and destructive to Russia; and that no probable success or advantage to be hoped from it, will in any degree compensate lor the evils which it has already brought, and the greater, which it is likely to entail upon that empire.
Upon a review of the general state of affairs at present, it leems probable, that a speedy and final conclusion of the w.-.r cannot be unacceptable to the coprt of Petersfor a peace are renewed, she will prove moderate in her demands. The marriage of the Great Duke, with a princess of Hesse Darmstadt, and sister to the Princess of Prussia, is of no other political consequence than as it may be supposed to operate in strengthening the connexion between the courts of Petersburg and Berlin. The consanguinity of princes is, however, only productive of effect, when their interests happen to draw in the fame line.
ginated near the close of the pre- burg; and it may be reasonably sent year, and is not yet finally de- imagined, that if the negociations . . § for
The present year has been fortunate to the Ottoman empire; and though the events of the war have only afforded negative advantages, they are of such a nature as to be of the greatest itnponance. The abilities of a great minister, and the enterprising spirit of a brave adventurer, have given a new colour to all their affairs. Egypt is recovered, Ali Bey no more, order restored in the coasts of the Lesser Asia, and their troops have shaken off their panic, and are at length taught ^fo behold an enemy with a steady countenance. And though the insurrection in Syria is still kept alive by the Chiek Daher, it can now be attended with no dangerous consequences; and the face of* things is so much changed for the bettrr, in the capital, the provinces, and the army, that it may be supposed, it will not a little contribute to the re-establishment of peace.
No opinion can yet be formed, of the effect that the death of the Grand Signior (which.took place soon after the close of the year) may have apon public affairs. As little can be said as to the character of his successor. Princes are always exalted beyond the condition of humanity at their first accession;
and wonderful things are reported and expected from them. New reigns are generally vigorous in their beginning ; and as it is not probable, that a prince at his fiirt coming out of a seraglio, in which he had been confined for forty years, will have many opinions of his own upon public affairs; it may be imagined that he will for some time be guided by those whom he finds already in their possession and management. By what has hitherto appeared, he is making such preparations as indicate a prosecution of the war with redoubled vigour.
It would be a matter of no little difficulty, to form even any conjecture upon the conduct of the two great Germanic powers. Their incessant preparations for war, and augmentation of their armies, without any apparent object, present us with a mystery, which can only be unfolded by its effects. The great encampments formed by the Emperor, and the movements of his troops on the Turkish frontiers, made it imagined that he intended to take an active part in the war upon the Danube ; and it is not impossible that this apprehension had some influence upon the conduct of the Ottomans in the course of the campaign. As no hostilities have taken place, it may not perhaps be unreasonable to imagine, that these motions were only intended to intimidate the Porte, and thereby induce it to enter into such terms of accommodation, as would h ive answered the views of the court of Petersburg. It must at the same time be acknowledged, that it is far from being a certainty, that any such co-incidence of friendship and sentiment actually subsist)
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