- 120 As Congress addresses such issues in considering pending energy and environmental legislation and review of the Administration's ongoing formulation of a National Energy Strategy, it is important that the technological, economic, and institutional opportunities, shortfalls, and impediments associated with achieving improvements in energy efficiency be understood. This assessment will focus on the technical potential and commercial prospects for future efficiency gains. It will analyze what has promoted and deterred efficiency gains in the recent past, the research and development required to deliver new energy efficiency technologies, and alternative ways to accelerate commercial adoption of energy efficient technologies such as through efficiency standards, changes in energy pricing, or other regulatory mechanisms. The assessment will examine potential efficiency gains from the perspective of major end users: the residential and commercial sector, industry, transportation, and government, and the possible alternative roles of public and private sector involvement in promoting energy efficiency in these sectors. In the course of this assessment OTA will draw heavily on its prior work in industrial energy use, analyzing trends in how energy use and the economy interact, examining the demand and supply outlook for energy, as well as its ongoing assessment on global climate change and an extensive number of other studies. Possible Impact on Legislation: As part of this assessment OTA is examining the potential efficiency gains in the electric and gas utilities sector. The analysis will include the possible energy efficiency contributions and related public policy issues of integrated resource planning, demand side management, and expanded competition in power supply markets. The findings of this analysis has relevance to a wide range of energy legislation before the House and Senate. These include: - S. 742: A bill to promote cost effective energy efficiency improvements in all consumer participation in energy efficiency, conservation and cost-effective - S. 961: A bill to require that Federal buildings be managed in a manner that will improve energy conservation and efficiency, and for other purposes. - S. 743: A bill entitled the "National Energy Efficiency and Development Tax Act of 1991." - H.R. 1543: A bill to encourage cost effective energy conservation and energy efficiency, and to permit the exploration, development, production, purchase, and sale of domestic energy resources to the maximum extent practicable and in a manner consistent with, and in furtherance of, environmental values, and for other purposes. -H.R. 3498: A bill amending the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Technology Competitiveness Act of 1989 to establish research and development and joint venture authority for high temperature superconductivity electric power technologies, and for other purposes. - S. 679: A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to exclude from gross income payments made by public utilities to customers to reduce the cost of - 121 - S. 661: A bill to provide for energy independence, the development of alternative forms of energy, and for energy conservation, and for other purposes. - S. 417: A bill to establish energy conservation and clean energy requirements for - S. 928: A bill to provide supplemental grants through the State Energy - S. 922: A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to exclude from gross S. 326: A bill to establish a comprehensive energy conservation program. - S. 83: A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to exclude from gross - H.R. 2452: A bill to amend the National Energy Conservation Policy Act to - H.R. 2451: A bill to provide for energy conservation standards for certain lamps, - H.R. 1560: A bill to reestablish the Solar Energy and Energy Conservation Bank, - H.R. 1418: A bill to encourage energy conservation among farmers, ranchers, - H.R. 780: A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide -H.R. 272: A bill to require the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development to establish energy conservation standards for public housing projects and to carry out a program to demonstrate the effectiveness of energy conservation measures in public housing projects. As a follow-up to the report on automotive fuel economy, OTA has begun work on a study of Transportation Energy Conservation, as part of our the assessment, U.S. Energy Efficiency: Trends and Future Opportunities. This study will examine a range of transportation energy efficiency mechanisms (retiring older vehicles by extending Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) credits or other means, gasoline taxes, "feebates" for efficient vehicles, technology R&D programs, etc.). We expect many of these mechanisms to be addressed in legislative initiatives that are likely to be introduced or reintroduced in the next session. In particular, there is likely to be renewed Senate floor debate on comprehensive energy policy which will likely include consideration of Senator Bryan's CAFE amendment (S.1224) or other CAFE proposals. Other legislation that might be affected includes: - S. 945: A bill to require the Secretary of Energy to conduct a fuel cell research and development program, to establish a national transportation fuel blend requirement, and for other purposes. - H.R. 3482: A bill to encourage nonroad transportation modes to convert from the use of imported fuels like diesel oil to cleaner burning domestic alternative fuels, and for other purposes. -H.R. 3397: A bill providing for research and development and the demonstration in Federal buildings of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, and for other purposes. -H.R. 2866: A bill to encourage the use of alternative fuels across the transportation sector and facilitate research on the design of motor vehicles - 122 -H.R. 2279: A bill to amend title 23, United States Code, to promote effective OTA's forthcoming report, Building Energy Efficiency, addressing the prospects for improving the energy efficiency in the nation's building stock may affect energy-related legislation under consideration, notably HR 776, the National Energy Efficiency Act of 1991. OTA's ongoing project on industrial energy efficiency may affect many of the comprehensive energy bills being considered in the House and Senate including: S. 1220, S. 741, S. 326, H.R. 1543, H.R. 1196, H.R. 776, all of which have a number of industrial energy use provisions. Of particular significance may be S. 220, The Cofiring Promotion Act of 1991, which directs the Secretary of Energy to: (1) implement a research and demonstration program of cofiring (of natural gas and coal) in utility and large industrial boilers in order to determine optimal natural gas injection levels for environmental and operational benefits; and (2) provide financial assistance for half the costs of such cofiring technology projects. Project Director: Peter Blair 228-6260. Interim Publications: Industrial Energy Efficiency (R), Spring 1992. Energy Efficiency in the Federal Government: Government by Good Building Energy Efficiency (R), Early 1992. FUELING DEVELOPMENT: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING A variety of concerns has directed attention toward establishing greater cooperation among the world's governments in developing policies aimed at systematically fostering energy development in the Third World countries while mitigating the environmental impacts of that development. Increasing the level of energy services in developing countries is essential for advancing their economies and raising standards of living. But greater - 123 themselves as well as the rest of the world, unless they are handled in ways that are economically and environmentally acceptable. This study will examine how technology can contribute to the goal of sound and productive energy development in the world's poorer countries, and the role of U.S. policy and the relevant international organizations in encouraging the rapid adoption of improved technologies. The study will first examine the energy sector in developing countries, and energy's linkage with economic and social development, and the local and global environment. Second, the study will examine the extent to which technology can contribute to the improved efficiency of energy supply, distribution and use in developing countries, the factors determining the rate of technology adoption, and the potential of these technologies for limiting environmental damage. Case studies will provide detailed analysis for the handful of developing countries that account for a large share of total developing country energy. Finally, the study will address ways in which Congress could encourage the adoption of technologies that promote economically and environmentally sound energy development in the poorer countries. The assessment will also include an analysis of how sales by U.S. energy technology vendors to developing countries could benefit the U.S. trade balance, and the policies of other industrialized countries with regard to the transfer of energy technologies to developing countries. Possible Impact on Legislation: A wide range of proposed legislation regarding developing countries may be affected by the findings of OTA's forthcoming report, Fueling Development: Energy Technology for Developing Countries. They are largely in the areas of global environmental protection initiatives, energy policy, technology transfer, and U.S. competitiveness. Among these bills are: - H.R. 2508: Foreign Aid Authorizations. This bill includes explicit language - H.R. 2621: Foreign Aid Appropriations. This bill has included environmental and -H.R. 2621: On global warming. -H.R. 3006: The Global Warming Assessment Act of 1991. -H.R. 2663/S. 1323: The CO2 Offsets Policy Efficiency Act of 1991. -S. 201: The World Environment Policy Act of 1991. - S. 533: This is a bill to elevate EPA to cabinet status. Part of the rationale for this -S. 571 (H.R. 2137 in the House): Bills dealing specifically with tied aid. - S. 971 (H.R. 1608): Calls for an emphasis on microenterprise development at - H.R. 3267 and S. 503: United States-Mexico Border Environmental Protection Project Director: Joy Dunkerley 228-6267. Estimated publication date: Early 1992. Interim publication: Energy in Developing Countries (R) Published January 1991. Requested by: Senate Governmental Affairs Committee House Select Committee on Hunger - 124 U.S.-MEXICO TRADE. TECHNOLOGY, AND INVESTMENT (R) Technological changes such as computer-aided manufacturing combined with the evolving strategies of U.S., Mexican, and third-country corporations (e.g., Japanese multinationals) will affect jobs and job opportunities for Americans regardless of the outcomes of the current trade talks. American companies have been putting plants into Mexico for reasons that include low labor costs, and displacing U.S. jobs. On the other hand, a free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and Mexico (Canada is also a party to the negotiations) might help spur economic growth in Mexico, creating new export markets for U.S. goods and new jobs for Americans. How economic growth in Mexico might affect U.S. exports will depend to some degree on the extent to which Mexican workers share in the benefits, e.g., whether wage levels rise. OTA's assessment will focus on plant location and technology decisions, as revealed by interviews with corporate managers and influenced by local labor market conditions, including prevailing wage levels and available skills. The analytical approach will entail: 1) analysis of production technologies, particularly in the motor vehicles and parts industry, in electronics, agriculture, and apparel; 2) analysis of corporate locational decisions and the public policy factors affecting them (e.g., environmental and workplace regulations); and 3) analysis of the relative attractiveness of Mexico as a site for foreign direct investment. Whether or not American, European, and Japanese companies increase their investments in Mexico will depend not only on FTA provisions, but on the quality of Mexican labor and its receptiveness to training, and on Mexico's infrastructure for the support of technologically sophisticated manufacturing (e.g., telecommunications). OTA will then examine the range of possible impacts on U.S. jobs and job opportunities, in terms of occupational categories and their skill requirements, as well as wage levels. For example, to the extent that Mexico can support high-technology manufacturing facilities, U.S. industries might be pushed into narrower niches of still higher technology. Possible Impact on Legislation: 95 bills and resolutions dealing with Mexico were introduced in the 102nd Congress. The following nine bills and resolutions are most directly related to the issues addressed in this study. -H.RES. 146: A resolution expressing the sense of the House of Representatives with respect to the United States objectives that should be achieved in the negotiation of future trade agreements. -H.RES. 149: A resolution to express the sense of the House of Representatives -H.RES. 161: A resolution relating to unfair practices in international trade -HR. 3366: A bill to repeal provisions of law regarding employer sanctions and |