thirdly, the low price of American commodities will cover the Spanish colonies with contraband. Indeed, necessity itself will oblige the Americans either to carry on this contraband, or to make war on Spanish and Portuguese America and their Islands. They have neither gold nor silver among themselves, and without these precious metals, they can neither cultivate their lands nor carry on commerce. They will only have four sources from whence to draw them; first, their commerce with Europe; secondly, pensions from France and Spain; thirdly, a contraband trade with the provinces of Spain and Portugal in the new world; and, fourthly, a war in these provinces.

While the Americans continue in a state, which the English call rebellion, their commerce with Europe will be interrupted by English cruisers. Thus they will draw but a small quantity of these precious metals from this first source. The pensions of France and Spain will be much too inconsiderable to support the agriculture and manufactures of so extensive a country. Their only remaining source, then, for these metals will be in the contraband, or wars with the Spanish and Portuguese provinces. To prevent this contraband, the treaty of confederation might make provision against the contraband both of the English and Americans. It is a delicate point for an Englishman to suggest the means; but, were the two nations sincerely disposed for peace, I could in a quarter of an hour suggest the infallible means.

Spain has another interest, perhaps still greater, against the independence of the Americans, and, consequently, in favor of the treaty in question. The Americans, who will be able to fly with their sails wherever they please, will make establishments in New Zealand, the Islands of Otaheite, or some other Islands in the South Sea, from whence they will torment the Spaniards in that sea, and even the English, the French, the Portuguese, and the Dutch, in the East India seas. Being independent, no treaty will prevent their making such establishments. They may make them consistent with the laws of nations. Captain Cook, in his last printed Voyages says, there are forty-seven thousand seafaring people in the Island of Otaheite alone; and Captain Wallis, who discovered those Islands, told me, at Lisbon, a few days ago, that the inhabitants of Otaheite went to the mast-head of the English ships, and ran on the yard-arms as well in three days' time as the English mariners, and gave me two reasons for it. The first was, that, living on fish, they are all seafaring people; and the second, that those who wear no shoes are always the most dexterous in mount

ing the upper parts of a ship. Captain Cook, also, in the same Voyage, gives a description of a port and city in New Zealand, which might in a few weeks be made impregnable; and one needs only to look at the shape of the Islands in the South Seas, in the maps we have of them, to be convinced that they have no small number of these impregnable ports.

I show myself as much a friend to Spain, to France, to Portugal, and Holland, as to England, in disclosing the following idea, which may have escaped others. Heretofore it was impossible to go to the South Seas with any safety, but in the months of December and January, and by the dreadful latitudes round Cape Horn. But the late discoveries of Captain Cook and other Englishmen have demonstrated the practicability of going thither in every month of the year, round the Cape of Good Hope, and the fine latitude of New Zealand, and in almost the same time; the one being a passage of four and the other of five mouths. Because the same west wind, which blows almost the whole of the year, and retards the vessels passing by Cape Horn, carries them with rapidity by the Cape of Good Hope and New Zealand.

Hence it follows, that, when the Americans quarrel with Spain, perhaps on the subject of the contraband, they will send their ships on the coast of Chili from their establishments in the South Seas, by the latitudes of New Zealand, and with the west winds, which always blow in that quarter. This is a voyage of only five weeks; for Captain Cook in one voyage, and Captain Fourneaux in another, went from New Zealand to Cape Horn in less time, and the journal of the winds, annexed to the Voyage of Captain Cook, shows, that the west winds in those latitudes bear to the east the propor tion of ten to one. When their vessels are on the coasts of Chili, they will take the advantage of the land wind, which, blowing constantly from south to north, will carry them along the coasts of Chili and Peru. With this wind they will go in fourteen days to the Bay of Panama, and in the course of this voyage they will ravage the seacoasts, and make prizes of all the vessels they meet. The naval force of Spain at Lima will not have it in their power to hinder them; for the same south wind, which will push the Americans forward, will prevent the fleets of Spain going to meet

them.

From the Bay of Panamá they will return by the great wind of the tropics, which never fails blowing from east to west, either to their settlements in the South Seas, or to sell their prizes in the seas of China or India, from whence they will perhaps again

return with new vessels, newly manned, to repeat their ravages. Their return will either be by New Zealand in coming from the Indies, or by the latitude of forty north in coming from China. In this last case they will fall on Mexico, and, profiting by the land winds, which always blow there from north to the Bay of Panamá, they will ravage Mexico as before they ravaged Chili and Peru. From the Bay of Panamá they will return by the great tropic wind, either to their own homes in the South Seas, or to the seas of Asia to renew a war, insulting, tormenting, and without remedy.

On the other hand, when at war with England, France, Portugal, or Holland, they will direct their course from their establishments in the South Seas, and fall upon the possessions of those powers in the East Indies. They will have two great routes to go and return by; the one to the west of New Zealand, the other by the islands between China and New Holland, and in this they will have as many passages as there are islands. Thence follows the impossibility of waylaying their vessels, either going or on their return. These consequences may all be prevented by the treaty proposed by Lord Rochford, in which it might be stipulated, that these Islands shall for ever belong to their present inhabitants and their posterity; for certainly the nation, who shall first possess herself of them, will command the commerce of the South Seas and those of Asia.

Europe, wishing for the independence of America, resembles a man asleep on ice, and not sensible that ice thaws; and therefore, to give the greater weight to the confederation, Holland and Denmark, who have interests in both the new worlds, might be invited to become contracting parties to those articles of treaty, which regard the mutual guarantee.

The reason of the frequent breach of treaties is, that they are made without provision for the future reciprocal interests of the contracting nations. The only ones that I know of, that pay attention to this object, are the treaties between Portugal and England; by which Portugal gains a preference for the sale of her wines in England, and England for the sale of her cloths in Portugal. The consequence is, that there never has been, and in appearance never will be, a war between Portugal and England. It would not be difficult, either in the general confederation, or by separate treaties of commerce between England on the one part, and the three kingdoms of Spain, Portugal, and France respectively on the other, to advance infinitely the commercial interests of all

three, by their connexions with England. Spain having wines, oil, fruits, salt, fine wools, and some other articles, which England has not; and England having iron, with coal in the same fields for the manufacturing of it, and by the moistness of her climate long wool for cloths of a low price, also tin, fish, with some other articles, which Spain has not; it follows, that when England is rich she will buy more articles of Spain, and when Spain is rich she will buy more articles of England, and consequently, that one cannot enrich herself without enriching the other The same reasoning applies to the natural connexions between England and Portugal.

There is even a natural connexion between Englaud and France in many articles of commerce, if the jealousy of fools and mione formed persons did not perpetually interrupt it. I have heard from certain authority, that had the Abbe Terray continued in the ministry of France, there would have been a tariff between France and England for the entry, on the most favorable conditions, of the wines and articles of mode of the one nation, and the manufactures of iron and wheat of the other, and England might have procured the consent of Portugal for the diminution of her commerce of wines with England by other indemnifications. England, in favor of France, Spain, and Portugal, might, without injury to herself, even permit the exportation of those wools, paying a duty on the exportation thereof The exportation of the superfluous wool would be an advantage to the proprietors of lands in England, to the King, in furnishing him a new revenue, and to those three nations, in giving them an article necessary for their manufactures,

Unfortunately for humanity, the Abbe Terray is no more; but, happily for humanity, Dr. Franklin, the Comptroller-General of France, M. Campomanes, the Duke of Braganza, and Lord North are all still living, and the King of Spain, with the Count de Florida Blanes, may put all these five in motion.

For my part, I have no authority from the English ministers to present this project; but, living in friendship with the greater part of them, and on an intimate footing with the others, I am certain, that some of the sentiments in this memorial correspond with their manner of thinking on the subject. I confess, I received a letter in Portugal, fourteen days before my departure for Spain, from Lord Rockford, who is not at present in the ministry, but who is so t ken up with a project that does him so much honor, that he his advised me to feel the pulses on the possibility of making it succeed; and that I have a letter on the same subject from the

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Duke of Braganza, who entered into the views of my Lord Rochford, not as a politician, but as a friend to humanity.

Encouraged by such men, and still more by the dictates of my own heart, I wrote to one of the English ministers, that, if I did not find minds too much heated, and there was no danger of giving offence, I intended to do justice to the project of my Lord Rochford in Spain and in France, and begged him to send me an answer to Paris, whether the ministry of England approved or disapproved my intentions.

I have only to add, that my views being to unite, and not to separate nations, I have no objection that the ministers of France and Dr. Franklin should each have a copy of this memorial.

END OF VOL. VIII.

CAMBRIDGE:
STEREOTYPED AND PRINTED BY

FOLSOM, WELLS, AND THURSTON,
PRINTERS TO THE UNIVERSITY.