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ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE PROGRAM DIVISIONS IN FY 1993 cont.

alternatives, and the costs and effects of various federal student aid programs, including the Pell Grant program.

National Security Division:

In fiscal year 1993, the National Security Division provided information on defense budget issues to various Congressional committees and subcommittees. Some of the division's work involved informal assistance. For example, members of the division assisted in assessing proposals to alter military retirement benefits.

During the year, the division also completed 16 formal products. Two of these products took the form of testimonies before committees and subcommittees. The other formal products included analyses of the:

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costs of alternative approaches to implementing the START II Treaty;

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trends in costs of military health care;

nature and efficacy of defense conversion initiatives; and

experiences of displaced defense workers and policies for dealing with such workers.

Special Studies Division:

Major accomplishments in this division in fiscal year 1993 included:

Published reports and papers on options for reducing the federal work force, controlling losses of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, the use of performance measurement in federal budgeting, expiring authorizations and unauthorized

ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE PROGRAM DIVISIONS IN FY 1993 cont.

Prepared testimony on controlling federal liabilities for pensiontermination insurance, the Defense Business Operations Fund, capital budgets, balanced budget amendments, biennial budgeting, expedited rescission, "buy out" legislation, reductions in federal personnel costs in the Clinton budget, and the line item veto;

o Briefed staff and prepared data and memoranda for Congressional committees on the financial activities of government-sponsored enterprises, proposals to modify and sell loans held by the Federal Railroad Administration, developing a secondary market for loans to small businesses, the performance of the College Construction Loan Insurance Association (Connie Lee), direct student loans, a deficit reduction trust fund, economic costs of federal regulation, the Iraqi Claims Act, the National Performance Review, Financial Accounting Standard 106 (disclosure of post-employment health care cost by private firms), the market for municipal bond insurance, a federal direct loan program to distressed state and local governments, budgetary treatment of health care reform, federal pension insurance reform, contracting and overhead costs in government, federal travel costs, locality pay, cash awards made to federal employees, leave practices covering the Senior Executive Service, and capital budgeting;

Maintained data bases for analysis of governmental activity financed through federal trust funds and expiring authorizations and modified model of the costs and savings from reducing the size of the federal work force; and

o Provided other support covering a wide range of general government and budget process topics to the Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board and the Joint Committee on the Organization of Congress, and briefings on the U.S. budget process for state legislative staffs and representatives of other countries. Provided data, briefings and other information for the

CHANGES IN PLANS FOR FY 1993 AND FY 1994
IN THE PROGRAM DIVISIONS

There was no significant change in plans in fiscal year 1993 in the program divisions.

In fiscal year 1994, spending for personnel costs (pay and benefits) was reduced by $804,000, or 12%, below the original request as the program divisions absorbed 60% of the shortfall in agency funding in fiscal year 1994.

PRIORITIES FOR THE PROGRAM DIVISIONS DURING FY 1995

Priorities for the program divisions for fiscal year 1995 include:

Natural Resources and Commerce Division:

In fiscal year 1995 the division anticipates providing important analytical services to the Congress in several areas, including agriculture, energy and natural resource policy, environmental programs, financial institution regulation, international trade, science policy, and public investment and infrastructure. World and national events are likely to continue to focus the attention of Congress on these areas, but the exact nature of legislative activity cannot be pinned down so far in advance. For example, in agriculture and trade, the agenda depends strongly on the success of current negotiations on a GATT agreement to liberalize agricultural trade as well as the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Work may examine the potential effects and costs of the border plan and the North American Development Bank. Agriculture analysis is likely to support CBO's budget analysis and committee deliberations in anticipation of the Farm Bill of 1995. Energy issues may focus on the interaction of energy and environmental goals, including a desire to reflect congestion and environmental externalities in energy prices. In addition, ongoing instability in the Middle East and restructuring in the former Soviet Union create supply uncertainties. These separate developments are likely to focus attention on energy pricing policies, conservation policies, strategic petroleum reserve policy, and support for alternative energy sources. Other environmental issues are likely to continue to develop in the areas of solid waste disposal and remediation, cleanup of hazardous waste sites, and the impact on water quality from pesticide use and other agriculture practices, and efforts to reflect environmental impacts and resource depletion in National Income and Product Accounts. The evolution of the structure of the U.S. financial industry, and changes in the Federal regulatory system and deposit insurance funds, will provide a challenging agenda for the division, as will potential problems with the commercial insurance industry. Science policy and public investment can

PRIORITIES FOR THE PROGRAM DIVISIONS DURING FY 1995 cont.

resources most effectively in these areas may assume heightened importance as the budget agreement forces hard choices among domestic appropriated programs. Fees for the use of public infrastructure and public resources, and taxes on energy and greenhouse gases are likely to be considered both for their revenue effects and for their effects on externality-producing activities.

The division will continue to support the other divisions of CBO by providing models of federal enterprises, assisting in cost and revenue estimates, forecasting oil and agricultural commodity prices, and tracking the status, contingent liabilities and likely costs of deposit insurance funds.

Health and Human Resources Division:

During fiscal year 1995, the division will continue to provide several types of analytic support to Congressional committees on issues of immediate legislative concern. The division expects to be actively involved in analyzing topics related to restructuring the nation's health care system and modifying the major health programs--such as Medicare and Medicaid. It will also be examining unemployment insurance and reemployment assistance; possible revisions to the nation's welfare system, such as limiting the duration of benefits or guaranteeing child support; federal support of elementary, secondary, and postsecondary education; and federal insurance of private pensions.

National Security Division:

The division expects no change in its basic mission in fiscal year 1995: supplying high-quality, timely information on defense budget issues at the request of Congressional committees of jurisdiction. The continued downward pressure on federal spending makes it likely that the division will continue to analyze options that hold down defense spending. Specific requests might focus on the cost of alternative approaches to modernizing tactical aircraft units, potential savings from reducing nuclear forces, the feasible pace of reductions in military personnel, methods to reduce support costs (including those for environmental cleanup), and the least costly ways to maintain the defense industrial base. Requests are likely regarding the long-term costs of military weapon programs and the efficacy of federal programs designed to

PRIORITIES FOR THE PROGRAM DIVISIONS DURING FY 1995 cont.

Special Studies Division:

In fiscal year 1995, the division will continue its efforts to provide the Congress with information that is useful in planning and controlling the effective use of federal financial resources. Specific studies and reports will examine the feasibility of a more long run, cost-based focus in budgeting; budgeting for federal pensions; proposals for changing the budget process; improving agency reporting to facilitate performance assessment, an evaluation of proposed new government-sponsored enterprises to promote the flow of credit into infrastructure, the appropriate use and financial structure of federal revolving funds, the administration of justice, and possibly a reexamination of the intergovernmental distribution of responsibilities for public services. The division will also continue its efforts to monitor the implementation and cost of both locality pay and employment reductions.

PRODUCTS OF THE PROGRAM DIVISIONS

See section on "Accomplishments of the Program Divisions in FY 1993".

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