98 OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT they age; the prospects for decommissioning; and current and potential Federal efforts that could contribute to more timely and better-informed plant life and decommissioning decisions. Requested by: Senate Committee Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Hon. John Dingell, Chairman Hon. Philip Sharp, Chairman, Subcommittee on Energy Dismantling the Bomb and Managing the Nuclear Materials This report analyzes problems facing current efforts to dismantle nuclear weapons and manage the Among issues analyzed in this report are current nuclear warhead retirement and dismantlement plans; possibilities and plans for disposal of nuclear materials; the public's concerns about dismantlement; environment, safety and health practices and issues; and dismantlement activities in Russia. Various initiatives that Congress could consider to establish a national policy, determine the next steps in warhead dismantlement and nuclear materials management, approach decisions on the ultimate disposition of nuclear materials, enhance the institutional capabilities necessary to ensure success and encourage sound dismantlement and materials management in Russia are suggested in this report. Requested by: Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman Hon. William V. Roth, Jr., Ranking Minority Member Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks Since the end of the Cold War, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction has become one of the United States' most urgent national security and foreign policy concerns. By establishing a system of obstacles, disincentives, rewards, and international norms or rules of behavior, the international community can lessen the desire for and increase the costs of acquiring these weapons. In this report, OTA describes what nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons can do, analyzes the consequences of their spread for the United States and the world, and summarizes technical issues for monitoring and controlling their production. This report also explains the array of policy choices that can be used to combat proliferation, identifying tradeoffs and choices that confront U.S. and international policymakers. Requested by: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chairman Hon. Jesse Helms, Ranking Minority Member Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Hon. John Glenn, Chairman OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 99 Multinationals and the National Interest: Playing by Different Rules In the post cold war period, the role of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the global economy is changing faster than the rules that govern their activities. At the same time, significant asymmetries in the national policies of the major trading nations have developed, which may ultimately undermine the post World War II system of international trade and investment. Multinationals are central to this process because they are major international conduits of technology, goods, and services. They also provide quality jobs and capital that support economic growth and a high standard of living. The policy questions turn on two issues: 1) how to achieve a rough balance between the needs of MNEs to achieve global efficiency on the one hand, and the need of nations to retain technical and industrial competitiveness on the other; and 2) how to achieve and sustain an equitable distribution of advanced technology and manufacturing capabilities among competing economies. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest Hollings, Chairman Hon. John D. Rockefeller, Chairman, Subcommittee on Foreign Commerce and Tourism U.S. Telecommunications Services in European Markets This report examines the entry of U.S. telecommunications firms, including regulated carriers, into European markets. Although these markets are still largely reserved for state-owned public telephone operators, U.S. carriers are successfully competing in some specialized markets, including cellular communications and cable television. OTA concludes that political, technological, and economic trends will soon bring about wider access to European telecommunications services markets, and U.S. firms will be strong competitors because of their growing experience in developing innovative services for corporate clients. The U.S. economy can benefit greatly from increased trade in communications and information services and from the support that U.S. carriers provide for other U.S. firms operating in global markets. At the same time, these foreign ventures raise some domestic policy issues, including the adequacy of long-term industry investment in domestic infrastructure modernization and in research and development. The report suggests that policymakers should pay continuing attention to trends in these areas. Requested by: House Committee on Foreign Affairs Hon. Dante B. Fascell, then member Senate Committee on Finance Hon. Lloyd Bentson, then Chairman Hon. John C. Danforth, Ranking Minority OTA Assessment: The Department of Veterans Affairs Persian Gulf Veterans' Health Registry Public Law 102-585, the Persian Gulf War Veterans' Health Status Act, charged the Director of 100 OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Veterans Affairs (VA) Persian Gulf registries created under that law and earlier legislation. The law calls for separate OTA reports on the VA and DoD registries. A good start has been made on all facets of the registry complex (including both DoD and VA activities). However, improvements are needed at this stage to make the VA registry more useful and to lay a better foundation for coordination among the pieces of the registry complex once they are complete. In a review of the draft report, both DoD and VA indicated agreement on most of the points raised and VA signaled their intention to act on OTA's conclusions. Requested by: Mandated under Public Law 102-585 Pulling Together for Productivity: A Union-Management Initiative at U S WEST, Inc. The report describes the costs and benefits of worker involvement in implementation of new Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation Hon. John Kerry, Chairman, Subcommittee on Foreign Commerce and Tourism Hon. John D. Rockefeller IV, Chairman, Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space The Continuing Challenge of Tuberculosis September 1993 The report defines current understanding of tuberculosis in the United States and examines the Federal role in its control. After having declined for 30 years, the overall incidence of tuberculosis is again on the rise. Especially hard hit are economically-disadvantaged people, racial and ethnic minorities, and foreign-born individuals. The report concludes that, unchecked, these trends represent a profound threat to communities already saddled with poor health, poverty, and other social problems. In addition to reviewing the state of research into new preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic technologies, the report pays special attention to the delivery of effective tuberculosis services, the emergence of multidrug resistant tuberculosis and the relationship between tuberculosis and the human immunodeficiency virus that causes AIDS. At a time when the Nation is focused on health care reform, the threat of tuberculosis reminds us of the importance of maintaining a strong public OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 93 support new radio-based technologies and applications—including digital audio broadcasting, lowEarth orbiting satellites, and personal communications services as well as existing services such as high-frequency broadcasting and satellite-delivered mobile communications. The agreements reached at WARC-92 have profound implications for American consumers and businesses, U.S. competitiveness in radiocommunication systems and services, and overall U.S. radiocommunication policy. The report complements and expands on a November 1991 background paper done by OTA, The 1992 World Administrative Radio Conference: Issues for U.S. International Spectrum Policy. That study concentrated on the U.S. WARC preparation process in the larger context of international radiocommunication policymaking. The current study presents an in-depth analysis of the radio technologies considered at WARC-92, discusses the issues involved in the implementation of the conference's decisions, and identifies lessons learned as a result of the WARC-92 preparation and negotiation process. The report presents various options for improving U.S. radiocommunication policymaking, both for future WARC preparations and as part of an overall plan for increasing the cohesiveness and focus of U.S. radio policy efforts. Requested by: Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation Hon. Ernest Hollings, Chairman House Committee on Energy and Commerce Defense Conversion: Redirecting R&D U.S. defense needs have changed fundamentally since the end of the Cold War. The Nation has begun the transition to an economy less devoted to defense, and further deep, sustained defense cuts are to be expected. The challenge is to keep dislocation of workers and communities to a minimum, and take advantage of opportunities to channel human and technological resources into building a stronger economy. The first report of this assessment (After the Cold War: Living With Lower Defense Spending) discussed the effects of lower defense spending on workers, communities, and companies. It considered options for easing the transition for displaced workers and hardhit communities, and for investing in technology development and diffusion to promote growth and open new opportunities for displaced workers and defense-dependent communities. The second and final report of the assessment focuses on redirecting federally funded research and development from military to commercial or dual-use activities. The report addresses the short-term problems that must be solved in order to maintain industry interest in cooperative research and development agreements. In addition, it addresses the longer-term issue of whether or not and how the Nation might craft new technology-based national initiatives to take up some of the economic slack left by declining defense spending. As illustrations, the report considers how high-speed ground transportation (maglev and steel-wheel trains) and clean cars could contribute to the national technology base, stimulate industrial development, and create good jobs. Requested by: Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Hon. Claiborne Pell, Chairman Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources |